June 2025
We're just going to be straight with you as always. This newsletter is coming at the end of June because we wanted to see if world events would settle enough to give us some sense of where this all may be going, and the impact it will have on precious metals. Can we say we have absolute clarity? Absolutely not. However, if we use history as a guide, we can make some educated assumptions about possible scenarios going forward. And history tells us quite clearly that when the world destabilizes to the degree with which it has, there is rarely a quick resolution to any conflict. What does that mean?
In the weeks and months ahead, we should not be surprised if "unintended consequences" rear their ugly head. Decisive actions taken on behalf of one nation often set off a series of smaller ripples that are not detected until later. Like an earthquake in the middle of the ocean, the massive movement of water is not detected until the tsunami reaches land. Thus, do not be surprised if the Israel/Iran cease fire fails. Or national leaders intent on conquest "take advantage of a good crisis," and use the distraction and confusion to advance their own interests with more aggressive actions--which only serves to displace more water adding to the list of possible unintended consequences that many manifest in the future.
What does this mean for gold and silver? The charts tell us an interesting tale. With the state of the world today, it's never a bad time to build your financial and geopolitical insurance portfolio. In the meantime, take solace in the pause and enjoy time with your friends and family as next week we celebrate Independence Day. As the summer moves on, we will be...
Here for you,
The OWNx Team
Gold and Silver
What Do the Charts Say?
It is no surprise that the high volatility in the price of gold has continued. As of today, the price has broken under a wedge that has been forming over the last two months. That is confirmation that we are in a period of consolidation, which is what we would expect after a pause in the last few weeks of intense geopolitical uncertainty. While seasonally, gold and silver tend to take the summer off and consolidate, this year I would not get complacent. A single misstep geopolitically by any of the engaged nations could cause gold to take off again. That said, we would expect the consolidation to be supported by the lower uptrend line until it breaks out above the upper line. It is in this type of volatile and unpredictable environment that dollar cost averaging makes so much sense. We recommend taking advantage of being able to set a schedule and let our platform do the work for you! You can see how it works here.
Now, let's take a look at silver. For those holding the shiny metal, it's been frustrating seeing gold march higher while silver seemed to just trade sideways. The gold to silver ratio (the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold) had been in the 80s for the better part of two years. During the last two months it rose to over 100. In the last few weeks however, it has retreated to around 90. Could this be the turn when silver finally plays a bit of "catch-up" relative to the price of gold? We should get some clues over the next couple of months. Meanwhile, we expect the consolidation to also be supported by the lower uptrend line. When silver does break out above the upper resistance, now at $37 per ounce, it could quickly reach $40.
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Gold-related news...
Gold prices should hit $4,000 as U.S. deficits may overshadow the Israel-Iran conflict, BofA says
Oh yeah... Let's not forget that the sovereign debt crisis still looms on the now, not-so-distant horizon. “Wars and geopolitical conflicts typically aren’t long-term growth drivers for gold prices, according to analysts at Bank of America, which sees the precious metal reaching $4,000 an ounce over the next year. Despite the Israel-Iran conflict heating up, the outlook for gold is likely to be swayed more by the U.S. budget deficit."
Gold's Safe-Haven Surge: Geopolitical Storms and Central Bank Demand Fuel Record Prices
Analysts note that geopolitical risks are now a perpetual tailwind for gold. J.P. Morgan forecasts prices could hit $4,000/oz by mid-2026, citing the Middle East's potential to escalate into a full-blown crisis. “Every time the region's tensions escalate, gold becomes the default hedge against the unknown,” said a commodities strategist at the firm.
Federal Bank Holidays: July 4th - Independence Day