In our last newsletter, we published a link to an article from John Mauldin where he asked the question, "Will the Fed reach too far in raising interest rates and draining liquidity? Or will they reverse course in time to avoid a recession?"

We have the answer. In their January FOMC meeting, the Fed blinked and announced a temporary halt to interest rate increases, citing a "weakening" economy and "cross-currents" in the markets. But they didn't stop there. They also signaled a possible end to their balance sheet liquidation operations later this year.

Both of these came as a bit of a surprise to many analysts, and is consistent with our theme for the year - we are indeed at a crossroads. That means we can expect more of the unexpected as everyone from individuals to world leaders make important decisions in the weeks and months ahead.