Can you say “consolidation?” Both gold and silver prices remain in an extended consolidation phase. This is often the case when prices substantially outrun a healthy advance. Such was the case from the March 2020 lows to the August 2020 highs. Historically, the metals have never absorbed such a run without taking an extended pause. That’s where we are today.
With gold, the chart shows a marked downward bias over the last six months since that high. The price has now entered a down-sloping wedge. Technically, the setup is for the price to break out above the downslope over the next two months and resume a new uptrend. However, if it continues through and breaks strong support in the $1780 range, we may be in for a deeper correction throughout 2021. By our next newsletter, we’ll know which it is.
Silver is showing relative strength compared to gold. Its chart paints a more distinct sideways consolidation. This after a much stronger run in percentage terms than gold had from March to August. This is a good sign. It means that silver is not “confirming” that a longer-term downtrend has begun.
Overall, the charts are breaking some norms from past bull runs. This isn’t unexpected, as the world is in uncharted financial and geopolitical waters. As we mentioned in our July 2020 Newsletter, this bull run was likely to be “a bit more wild” than past ones. That is proving to be true.
Fundamentally, there is no reason to believe that the precious metals bull market is over. On the contrary, the reasons for future appreciation continue to grow. Due to the structure of how metals markets work today (paper contracts leveraged and traded) and the COVID economy, we can expect continued high volatility for the next few years as capital decides where it needs to park until the dust settles.
Technically, it appears we are in a great window to accumulate these financial insurance instruments. It’s what our platform was made for.